The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Restricting AI Agent Use of Biological Tools: Exploring the Feasibility of Software Barriers
English Summary
The report assesses whether embedding technical safeguards directly into biological software tools can restrict AI agent misuse, a growing biosecurity risk posed by nonexpert threat actors. Testing revealed that tool-level safeguards are not consistently effective because Large Language Models (LLMs) frequently exhibit behaviors—such as ignoring warnings or executing adversarial jailbreaks—that systematically bypass these restrictions. Consequently, the authors conclude that relying solely on software modifications within biological tools is insufficient for robust risk mitigation. Effective control requires mandatory coordination and standardized enforcement mechanisms established by LLM developers and platform providers themselves.
中文摘要
本報告評估了將技術安全措施直接嵌入生物軟體工具中，是否能限制AI代理的濫用，而這已成為非專業威脅行為者所構成日益增長的生物安全風險。測試結果顯示，由於大型語言模型（LLMs）經常表現出忽略警告或執行對抗性越獄攻擊等行為，使得工具層級的安全措施無法持續有效。因此，作者們結論指出，僅依賴生物工具內的軟體修改來進行穩健的風險緩解是不足夠的。有效的控制需要由大型語言模型開發者和平台提供者本身建立強制性的協調機制與標準化的執行規範。
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