The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Insights from table-top exercises in Europe on AI safety and cyber misuse
English Summary
Table-top exercises conducted across Europe reveal significant governance gaps in national preparedness for large-scale cyberattacks powered by advanced AI capabilities. Policymakers struggled with defining crisis thresholds, assessing risks from proprietary models, and coordinating responses due to reliance on developer self-assessments and institutional silos. To effectively manage this threat, the report urgently recommends establishing pre-agreed escalation protocols, developing independent technical capacity for risk evaluation, and implementing robust multilateral governance frameworks that can activate rapidly during a crisis.
中文摘要
在歐洲進行的桌面演練揭示了國家層面對於應對由先進人工智慧能力驅動的大規模網路攻擊，存在顯著的治理缺口。政策制定者在定義危機門檻、評估來自專有模型（proprietary models）的風險，以及由於過度依賴開發商的自我評估和制度孤島化而協調應對措施方面遇到困難。為有效管理此類威脅，報告迫切建議建立預先約定的升級協議、發展獨立的技術能力以進行風險評估，並實施強健的多邊治理框架，使其能在危機期間迅速啟動。
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