ThinkTankWeekly

Winning the Next War: Overcoming the U.S. Air Force’s Capacity, Capability, and Readiness Crisis

Mitchell | 2026-02-22 | defense

Topics: United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The Mitchell Institute argues that the U.S. Air Force has entered a severe force-generation crisis, describing it as the oldest, smallest, and least ready in its history at a time of rising peer threats. The report’s core reasoning is that deterrence and warfighting credibility depend on balancing three linked factors: sufficient force size, modern combat capability, and day-to-day readiness, and that current shortfalls across all three create unacceptable operational risk. It recommends a dual fiscal shift: increase top-line Air Force funding and reallocate internal spending from RDT&E toward procurement and operations and maintenance to rebuild near-term combat readiness. Strategically, the paper warns that failing to act now will raise the probability of major U.S. losses in a future high-end conflict and weaken U.S. deterrence posture.

中文摘要

研究認為,美國空軍已陷入嚴重的兵力生成危機,並指出,在面臨日益嚴峻的同儕威脅之際,美國空軍正處於其歷史上兵力最老、規模最小、戰備最差的時期。報告的核心論點是,威懾和作戰可信度取決於三個相互關聯的因素之間的平衡:充足的兵力規模、現代化的作戰能力和日常戰備狀態。目前這三個面向均不足,造成了不可接受的作戰風險。報告建議採取雙重財政改革:增加空軍總預算,並將部分內部支出從研發、測試與評估(RDT&E)重新分配到採購和作戰維護,以重建近期戰備能力。從戰略層面來看,該報告警告稱,如果現在不採取行動,將增加美國在未來高端衝突中遭受重大損失的可能性,並削弱美國的威懾態勢。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-07-13 | china_indopacific | 2026-W29 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.

    Read at Brookings

  2. 2.
    2026-07-13 | defense | 2026-W29 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that the U.S., through recent policy signals—such as questioning NATO's value or sympathizing with great-power territorial claims—is inadvertently adopting the core tenets of non-alignment, prioritizing transactional national interests over binding alliances. Historically, while non-alignment allowed developing nations to gain benefits without commitment, the analysis notes that this approach lacks the deep trust and shared obligations necessary for robust security structures. The implication is critical: by undermining established alliances, the U.S. risks losing its greatest strategic asset—the network of mutual commitments—as allies actively seek alternative bilateral or regional defense pacts.

    Read at CFR

  3. 3.
    2026-07-13 | health | 2026-W29 | Topics: United States

    The roundtable established that implementing generational bans represents a powerful, long-term strategy for tackling deeply entrenched public health crises like tobacco use. Using the UK’s permanent ban on selling cigarettes to those born after 2009 as key evidence, experts analyzed how such policies fundamentally alter market dynamics and consumer behavior over time. These lessons suggest that other nations facing persistent addiction challenges should consider adopting similar age-gating or generational restrictions to accelerate decline and set a precedent for future public health policy interventions.

    Read at CFR

  4. 4.
    2026-07-13 | energy | 2026-W29 | Topics: Climate, Trade, United States

    The CSIS analysis finds that the U.S. grid's regulatory framework for connecting large loads is severely fragmented and unprepared for the massive electricity demands posed by AI data centers. FERC has mandated significant reforms across six regional operators, requiring them to modernize interconnection studies, prevent cost-shifting, and establish clear tariffs for co-located generation. Evidence shows that most operators fall far short of these new standards, necessitating complex, multi-year policy adjustments rather than simple compliance. Policymakers must coordinate federal regulation (FERC) with state utilities to accelerate grid modernization, ensuring energy affordability while maintaining technological competitiveness.

    Read at CSIS

  5. 5.
    2026-07-13 | economy | 2026-W29 | Topics: AI, United States

    The Brookings report argues that while modern economies are fundamentally regional in nature, effective governance requires states to align their authority and resources with empowered local cross-sector networks. Current state economic development systems are often fragmented and ill-equipped to manage structural shifts like AI or the energy transition. To modernize, policymakers must adopt a structured 'state-regional' model where states define strategic clusters and allocate capital, while regions coordinate execution using deep local knowledge. This approach has proven successful in catalyzing billions in private investment by ensuring state resources are deployed strategically across multiple sectors to achieve measurable economic growth.

    Read at Brookings