The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Can Viktor Orbán lose Hungary’s high-stakes election?
English Summary
The analysis concludes that regardless of the election outcome, Hungary's policy choices are constrained by deep structural factors, making a systemic shift unlikely. Key constraints include economic pressures from conditional EU funding and critical energy infrastructure dependence on Russian technology and gas routes. Consequently, any future government will pursue a trajectory of 'gradual rebalancing' in foreign and energy policy, rather than making a clean break with either the EU or Russia. This suggests that while political leadership may change, the underlying strategic dependencies will dictate a cautious, pragmatic approach to regional alignment.
中文摘要
分析結論指出，不論選舉結果如何，匈牙利的政策選擇都受制於深層結構性因素，使得系統性轉變的可能性極低。主要的制約包括來自有條件歐盟資金的經濟壓力，以及對俄羅斯技術和天然氣路線的關鍵能源基礎設施依賴。因此，未來任何政府都將採取「漸進式再平衡」的軌跡來處理其外交和能源政策，而非與歐盟或俄羅斯進行徹底的斷裂。這表明，儘管政治領導層可能會更迭，但底層的戰略依賴性仍將決定其在區域定位上必須採取一種謹慎且務實的方法。
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