The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The new Eurasian chessboard: Power, connectivity and strategic resources
English Summary
Central Asia is identified as a critical geopolitical pivot point, sitting at the nexus of East-West connectivity, energy transition, and global order restructuring. The region's governments are increasingly asserting strategic independence from Moscow while maintaining non-alignment with the West, making it a key testing ground for new geopolitical dynamics. Consequently, the report stresses that external powers—including the EU, US, UK, and Türkiye—must enhance cooperation. This coordinated effort is crucial for supporting regional stability, mitigating great power competition, and effectively harnessing Central Asia's substantial growth potential.
中文摘要
中亞被認定為一個關鍵的地緣政治樞紐點，處於東西方互聯、能源轉型和全球秩序重組的交匯點。該地區的政府正日益從莫斯科主張戰略獨立，同時與西方保持不結盟立場，使其成為檢驗新地緣政治動態的關鍵場域。因此，報告強調，包括歐盟、美國、英國和土耳其在內的外部大國必須加強合作。這種協調的努力對於支持區域穩定、緩解大國競爭，以及有效發揮中亞巨大的增長潛力至關重要。
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