The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.
Survey Results: How AI Will Change the Global Balance of Power
English Summary
The CFR survey predicts that by 2035, global AI governance will be highly fragmented, despite disagreement over whether frontier capabilities will concentrate or diffuse. Experts suggest that geopolitical tensions, particularly a U.S.-China conflict, are most likely to accelerate capability concentration and further fragment international rules. Policymakers must prepare for an environment of competing national standards, recognize the increasing political leverage of nonstate AI labs, and mitigate risks associated with integrating autonomous systems into military decision-making.
中文摘要
戰略與國際事務中心（CFR）的調查預測，到 2035 年，全球人工智慧治理將呈現高度碎片化，儘管專家對於前沿能力是會集中還是分散存在分歧。專家指出，地緣政治緊張局勢，特別是以美中衝突為代表的對抗，最有可能加速能力的集權化，進而使國際規範更加碎片化。政策制定者必須為一個充滿相互競爭國家標準的環境做好準備，認識到非國家 AI 實驗室日益增長的政治影響力，並減輕將自主系統整合至軍事決策過程所帶來的風險。
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