The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Forecasting the size and demographics of the UK Armed Forces community
English Summary
RAND Europe forecasts that the UK Armed Forces community will undergo significant demographic shifts through 2045, with veteran numbers declining from 1.73 million (2025) to 1.06 million due to aging WWII and National Service generations, while the regular force remains stable at approximately 130,000-135,000 personnel. Using a sophisticated 'stocks-and-flows' population projection methodology applied to Ministry of Defence and Census data, the analysis demonstrates that despite smaller overall size, the community will become increasingly gender and ethnically diverse, with a higher proportion of working-age veterans requiring different support services. These findings carry important implications for defense policy and social support provision, requiring service providers to rebalance resources from age-related care toward employment, childcare, and mental health services while ensuring accessibility for a more diverse and intergenerational population.
中文摘要
RAND歐洲公司預測，英國武裝部隊社群將於2045年前經歷重大人口統計轉變，退伍軍人數量將從173萬人（2025年）下降至106萬人，主要源於二戰及義務兵役世代的老齡化，而現役軍人數量將維持穩定，約於13至13.5萬人之間。透過應用於國防部與人口普查數據的精密「存量與流量」人口預測方法，分析顯示儘管整體規模較小，該社群將呈現性別與種族多樣化趨勢加強，工作年齡段退伍軍人比例提升，需要差異化支持服務。此等發現對國防政策與社會支持服務具重大意義，要求服務提供單位重新配置資源，從與年齡相關的照護轉向就業協助、托幼及心理健康服務，同時確保服務可及性，以因應更加多樣化與跨世代的人口需求。
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