The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Taiwan And Europe Trade Relations And Economic Security
English Summary
The report argues that the economic relationship between Europe and Taiwan is rapidly evolving from purely commercial ties to a strategic partnership centered on national security and resilience. Key evidence highlights the growing importance of three sectors—semiconductors, renewable energy, and dual-use technologies (like drones)—as both sides seek to diversify supply chains and achieve strategic goals. While trade is expanding, the growth of Taiwanese investment into Europe remains hampered by regulatory and capital allocation concerns. Strategically, deepening cooperation in these high-tech sectors is crucial for Europe's energy transition and economic security, positioning Taiwan as a vital partner in global technological resilience.
中文摘要
本報告指出，歐台之間的經濟關係正從純粹的商業聯繫，快速演變為以國家安全和韌性為核心的戰略夥伴關係。關鍵證據凸顯了三個領域——半導體、再生能源和軍民兩用技術（如無人機）——的重要性日益增加，因為雙方都在尋求分散供應鏈並達成戰略目標。儘管貿易正在擴張，但台灣投資歐洲的增長仍受限於監管和資本配置方面的顧慮。從戰略角度來看，深化在這些高科技領域的合作，對於歐洲的能源轉型和經濟安全至關重要，這將使台灣定位為全球技術韌性的關鍵夥伴。
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