The IISS report argues that gold is a critical economic engine fueling Myanmar's internal conflict, providing revenue for armed opposition groups, business elites, and the military regime alike. The conflict has driven up demand for gold due to currency devaluation and foreign currency rationing, leading to an illicit supply chain controlled by multiple armed actors. This boom in small-scale mining causes severe environmental degradation, including mercury poisoning and river siltation, while simultaneously entrenching corruption and violence. Policymakers must recognize that addressing the conflict requires tackling the deeply intertwined nature of resource exploitation and the transnational flow of gold across South and Southeast Asia.
Mapping Risk And Resilience In The Global Illicit Gold Economy
English Summary
This research argues that the global illicit gold economy is a critical nexus of conflict financing and regional resilience, deeply embedding itself within unstable geopolitical zones. The analysis demonstrates how non-state armed groups exploit weak governance structures to fund operations by controlling unregulated mining and trade supply chains. Consequently, policymakers must adopt integrated strategies that move beyond simple enforcement; effective intervention requires linking financial intelligence, security cooperation, and development aid to disrupt the illicit flow of capital at its source points.
中文摘要
本研究主張，全球非法黃金經濟是一個至關重要的衝突資金來源和區域韌性交匯點，它已深植於不穩定的地緣政治區域。分析顯示，非國家武裝團體利用治理結構的薄弱環節，透過控制不受規範的採礦和貿易供應鏈來為其運營提供資金。因此，政策制定者必須採取整合性的策略，超越單純的執法措施；有效的干預需要將金融情報、安全合作與發展援助連結起來，從源頭點切斷非法資本流動。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The paper argues that transnational organized crime, driven by 'criminal convergence,' represents a critical security threat in Southeast Asia, with illegal economies rivaling the GDP of many nations. These threats manifest in 'criminal hubs' (such as those in the Golden Triangle or Sihanoukville) where cyber-crime and illicit financial activities intersect with weak governance and conflict dynamics. To mitigate these cross-border spillovers, the analysis recommends a multi-faceted strategy focusing on strengthening regional financial crime enforcement, enhancing multilateral intelligence sharing, and linking economic development assistance directly to law enforcement operations.
-
3.From Illegal Garimpo To Good Governance Strengthening Responses To Illicit Gold In The Brazilian Amazon (IISS)
Illicit gold mining (garimpo) poses a critical threat to the Amazon basin's biodiversity, climate stability, and indigenous populations. The crisis is fueled by the sector's high informality (estimated at 75-85%) and its deep entanglement with organized crime networks, leading to extensive deforestation and mercury pollution. Policy must therefore move beyond simple enforcement to strengthen governance, addressing the nexus between economic incentives, illegal resource extraction, and human rights. Coordinated international and national strategies are required to reconcile economic development with the urgent need for environmental preservation.
-
4.
The IISS argues that Russia conducted a systematic UAV campaign over Europe to exploit structural weaknesses in allied air defense and political cohesion. This campaign demonstrated that Europe's existing counter-air architecture was designed for conventional threats, not low-cost, deniable incursions aimed at exposing gaps in detection, legal authority, and collective response thresholds. The resulting vulnerability exposed political fractures within NATO and highlighted the limits of European deterrence postures. Policymakers must urgently address fragmented legal frameworks and slow attribution processes to build a comprehensive counter-UAV defense that operates before threats enter national airspace.
-
5.
The paper concludes that any significant crisis or full-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses severe and potentially disastrous economic risks for Malaysia, given its deep trade reliance on China and its critical role in global semiconductor supply chains. Economic modeling differentiates between a mere 'crisis' (estimated losses of 4.1% of GDP) and a full 'conflict,' which could result in devastating losses up to 41% of GDP due to severe trade disruptions and potential sanctions. Strategically, while Malaysia maintains an approach of 'active non-alignment,' the findings underscore that geopolitical instability necessitates immediate policy focus on economic resilience, supply chain diversification, and preparing for rapid shifts in global trade architecture.