ThinkTankWeekly

Contingent Capabilities Southeast Asias Emerging Anti Access Environment

IISS | 2026-03-09 | defense

Topics: China, Taiwan

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

Maritime Southeast Asian states are exploring anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) strategies to secure their interests during major power conflicts, yet their current development remains rudimentary and lacks systematic planning. The paper identifies a persistent disconnect between strategic policy debates concerning regional flashpoints and the actual implementation of military doctrine, posture, and asset acquisition. Diverse security priorities and internal institutional constraints, such as army dominance in policymaking, continue to hinder the realization of full A2/AD capabilities. Consequently, the future trajectory of these capabilities will determine how these nations manage regional contingencies and coordinate with security partners seeking closer interoperability.

Related Entries

  1. 1.

    The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.

    Read at CFR

  2. 2.
    2026-09-02 | economy | 2026-W36 | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Cybersecurity, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Trade, United States

    The widespread operational embedding of AI in global supply chains creates significant systemic dependencies on shared digital infrastructure, raising novel aggregation risks for the insurance market. These risks are not limited to model failure but stem from common vulnerabilities—such as shared cloud platforms or flawed models—that could simultaneously impact multiple seemingly independent firms. Policy implications require both operators and insurers to shift focus toward managing these interconnected weaknesses by establishing robust controls, including mandatory human oversight, detailed audit trails, and staged deployments. Insurers must update underwriting practices to map systemic technology dependencies across policyholders rather than treating AI exposure as a standalone risk.

    Read at RAND

  3. 3.
    2026-09-02 | europe | 2026-W36 | Topics: AI, China, Europe

    Valtonen argues that AI is fundamentally reshaping global competition, placing Europe under pressure to strengthen its industrial capacity while maintaining its core values. The key challenge involves balancing technological openness with necessary regulation to protect strategic interests against US-China rivalry. To remain competitive, Europe must pursue a more confident approach focused on building robust internal innovation and enhancing its economic security. This requires governments to play an active role in shaping AI development and defining what 'strategic autonomy' means in the digital age.

    Read at Chatham House

  4. 4.
    2026-09-02 | china_indopacific | 2026-W36 | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific

    The article warns that despite unprecedented spending of $2.6 trillion on AI infrastructure, tech giants are overinvesting in a field where technology is struggling to meet its stratospheric performance targets, raising concerns about an impending 'AI crash.' This massive capital expenditure has created economic vulnerability and questions the sustainability of current investment models. Strategically, the global AI landscape will be defined by competing geopolitical approaches: either the US's private-led model dominated by tech giants, or China’s strategy of deploying low-cost AI across the Global South to secure future dominance.

    Read at Chatham House

  5. 5.
    2026-09-02 | middle_east | 2026-W36 | Topics: China, Middle East, NATO, Trade, United States

    The article argues that six months into the conflict, the United States is in a strategic stalemate with Iran and lacks viable options for resolution. Both military escalation and comprehensive economic sanctions are deemed too risky, as they could provoke retaliation from regional allies or trigger global financial instability by antagonizing China. This inability to enforce its will signals a decline of U.S. influence, prompting regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hedge their bets and form independent alliances. Consequently, the Middle East is entering a new order where various local actors will compete for dominance, suggesting continued conflict and chaos despite reduced American military presence.

    Read at CFR