The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Forward And Seaward Archipelagic Defence As A Military Strategy For The Philippines
English Summary
The paper argues that the Philippines’ shift to a Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC) marks a major strategic move from broad modernization toward a geography-centered military posture focused on dispersed basing, longer-range strike, and denial operations. It reasons that worsening threat perceptions of China, especially in maritime border areas and near Taiwan, are driving this transition, but also increasing risks of sharper confrontation and security-dilemma dynamics. The analysis highlights practical constraints, including inter-service rivalry, political vulnerability to Chinese influence operations, and policy ambiguity over foreign basing access, weapons deployments, and partner force integration. Strategically, it suggests Manila should codify clearer baseline defense policies, integrate alliances more explicitly, and refine CADC’s theory of victory so deterrence objectives translate into concrete theater-level outcomes rather than capability acquisition alone.
中文摘要
該論文主張，菲律賓轉向「全面群島防衛概念」（CADC），標誌其戰略重心由廣泛現代化，轉為以地理條件為核心的軍事態勢，聚焦分散基地部署、較長程打擊能力與拒止作戰。文中指出，對中國威脅感知的惡化——尤其在海上邊界地區與臺灣周邊——正推動此一轉型，但同時也提高了更尖銳對抗與安全困境動態的風險。分析並凸顯多項實務限制，包括軍種間競爭、政治上易受中國影響力作戰滲透，以及在外國基地使用權、武器部署與夥伴部隊整合等政策上的模糊性。就戰略層面而言，作者建議馬尼拉應將更清晰的基線防衛政策予以制度化、更明確地整合同盟關係，並精煉CADC的「勝利理論」，使嚇阻目標能轉化為具體的戰區層級成果，而非僅止於能力建置。
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