The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
The Coming Crisis In Russias Political Economy
English Summary
The paper argues that Russia's war on Ukraine is economically unsustainable, forcing the Kremlin to choose between radical escalation or scaling back its war aims. Key evidence points to severe resource constraints, labor shortages, and the high cost of modern military production, which is straining state finances and depressing civilian sectors. To sustain the conflict, Russia must resort to highly disruptive, command-like measures that curtail market freedoms and civil liberties. These necessary internal controls carry major risks for regime stability, suggesting that the Kremlin will intensify its grip on both the population and the elite.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭在經濟上難以持續，迫使克里姆林宮必須在激進升級或縮減戰爭目標之間做出選擇。關鍵證據指出，嚴重的資源限制、勞動力短缺以及現代軍事生產的高成本，正在拖累國家財政，並壓抑民用部門。若要維持衝突，俄羅斯必須訴諸高度干預市場、限制市場自由和公民權利的命令式措施。這些必要的內部管制對政權穩定性構成重大風險，暗示著克里姆林宮將會加強對民眾和精英階層的控制。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The Chatham House analysis concludes that the UK's Defence Investment Plan (DIP) will be viewed by NATO allies as a mixed bag, primarily due to its failure to commit to higher GDP spending targets. However, the plan signals critical strategic improvements by emphasizing novel technologies—such as autonomous systems and digital infrastructure—and enhancing readiness. Crucially, the DIP adopts an international focus through major collaborative programs (e.g., AUKUS, GCAP) and establishes a new National Armaments Director Group (NADG). This structural shift toward flexible, portfolio-based collaboration is strategically valuable for NATO allies seeking reliable partners as US conventional forces reduce their European presence.
-
3.
The article argues that the U.S., through recent policy signals—such as questioning NATO's value or sympathizing with great-power territorial claims—is inadvertently adopting the core tenets of non-alignment, prioritizing transactional national interests over binding alliances. Historically, while non-alignment allowed developing nations to gain benefits without commitment, the analysis notes that this approach lacks the deep trust and shared obligations necessary for robust security structures. The implication is critical: by undermining established alliances, the U.S. risks losing its greatest strategic asset—the network of mutual commitments—as allies actively seek alternative bilateral or regional defense pacts.
-
4.
The article argues that while Ukraine's deep strikes and Russia's mounting economic instability create a window for peace talks, President Putin remains committed to maximalist demands and may escalate conflict through increased air assaults. Key evidence supporting this tension includes the strain on Russian energy infrastructure versus Moscow's refusal to negotiate in good faith, preferring instead to expand its claims. Consequently, the immediate strategic implication is that Washington must lead intensive diplomacy—a 'shuttle diplomacy'—to establish a framework agreement centered on a ceasefire along current lines and defining long-term European security arrangements.
-
5.
The Brookings analysis highlights that while U.S. security assistance has increased significantly, its efficacy remains inconsistent, citing past failures in theaters like Mali alongside successes in Ukraine. The core argument is that the US must reform its approaches to maximize return on investment (ROI) and build genuinely effective partner forces. This strategic recalibration is critical for achieving central national security goals, especially within regions often deemed lower priority, such as Africa. Policy recommendations suggest moving toward more targeted, sustainable assistance models rather than broad military deployments.