The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The Coming Crisis In Russias Political Economy
English Summary
The paper argues that Russia's war on Ukraine is economically unsustainable, forcing the Kremlin to choose between radical escalation or scaling back its war aims. Key evidence points to severe resource constraints, labor shortages, and the high cost of modern military production, which is straining state finances and depressing civilian sectors. To sustain the conflict, Russia must resort to highly disruptive, command-like measures that curtail market freedoms and civil liberties. These necessary internal controls carry major risks for regime stability, suggesting that the Kremlin will intensify its grip on both the population and the elite.
中文摘要
本文論述俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭在經濟上難以持續，迫使克里姆林宮必須在激進升級或縮減戰爭目標之間做出選擇。關鍵證據指出，嚴重的資源限制、勞動力短缺以及現代軍事生產的高成本，正在拖累國家財政，並壓抑民用部門。若要維持衝突，俄羅斯必須訴諸高度干預市場、限制市場自由和公民權利的命令式措施。這些必要的內部管制對政權穩定性構成重大風險，暗示著克里姆林宮將會加強對民眾和精英階層的控制。
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