ThinkTankWeekly

Can Saudi Arabia Keep Hedging?

Foreign Affairs | 2026-04-20 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, United States

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English Summary

The article questions the sustainability of Saudi Arabia's current 'hedging' strategy amid escalating regional conflicts involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. Evidence points to Riyadh's remarkable restraint, as it has refrained from directly responding to Iranian attacks and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, even while allowing US forces to utilize its bases. This non-committal posture, while maintaining regional stability for now, suggests that the current strategic balance is highly fragile. Policymakers must anticipate that sustained geopolitical pressure may force Saudi Arabia to abandon its delicate balancing act and commit more definitively to a major power bloc or regional alignment.

中文摘要

本文質疑沙烏地阿拉伯當前所採取的「權衡策略」在區域衝突升級的背景下,其可持續性。證據顯示,面對伊朗的攻擊和霍爾木茲海峽的封鎖,利雅得展現了顯著的克制,甚至允許美國軍方在其基地使用設施。這種不表態的立場,雖然暫時維持了區域穩定,但也暗示了當前的戰略平衡極其脆弱。政策制定者必須預料到,持續的地緣政治壓力可能會迫使沙烏地阿拉伯放棄其微妙的平衡術,而必須更明確地傾向於加入某個主要大國集團或區域陣營。

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