The analysis argues that Iran's long-standing political and military influence in Iraq is rapidly diminishing due to internal shifts and growing Iraqi resentment over foreign interference. Key evidence includes prominent Iranian-backed militias beginning to disarm or integrate with state forces, signaling a loss of independent power and control within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This shift suggests that Baghdad is prioritizing national sovereignty and centralizing authority, allowing Iraq to potentially pivot its economic and political alignment toward the wider Gulf region. The primary implication is that Iran will lose its ability to use Iraq as a stable staging ground for projecting regional power, significantly weakening its broader 'axis of resistance.'
The Jokowi Presidency: Indonesia’s Decade of Authoritarian Revival
English Summary
The analysis concludes that Jokowi's presidency delivered significant economic gains, marked by infrastructural transformation and low inflation, but at a steep democratic cost. While the administration successfully disrupted old political networks, it replaced them with new forms of cronyism and systematically weakened anti-corruption mechanisms. Crucially, the government also curtailed dissent and blocked political rivals, demonstrating a clear trend toward authoritarian consolidation. This pattern suggests that rapid state development and economic growth in developing nations may not inherently preserve democratic institutions, posing a structural risk of democratic backsliding.
中文摘要
分析總結指出，喬科維（Jokowi）的總統任期雖然帶來了顯著的經濟增長，體現為基礎設施的轉型和低通膨，但其代價卻是高昂的民主成本。儘管政府成功瓦解了舊有的政治網絡，但卻以新的裙帶關係形式取而代之，並系統性地削弱了反腐機制。更關鍵的是，政府也限制了異議聲音並阻撓政治競爭對手，展現出明顯的威權鞏固趨勢。此一模式暗示，發展中國家若追求快速的國家發展和經濟增長，並不能必然地維護民主制度，這構成了一種結構性的民主倒退風險。
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