The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
How Long Can the Iranian Regime Hold On?
English Summary
The analysis concludes that while recent U.S.-Israeli strikes have severely degraded Iran's military and political infrastructure, the regime is highly resilient and likely to survive the immediate conflict due to its deep institutional roots and the opposition's disunity. The article cautions that military action alone cannot achieve regime change, as the ruling elite has a history of enduring crises and maintaining control. Consequently, the U.S. must shift its strategy from confrontation to careful diplomacy. Washington must guide post-conflict dialogue to prevent the current elite from gaining power, instead setting a high bar for any negotiations that promote a genuinely inclusive and humane political transition.
中文摘要
分析結論指出，儘管近期美國對以色列的打擊已嚴重削弱了伊朗的軍事和政治基礎設施，但該政權具備高度韌性，且由於其深厚的制度根基以及反對派的內部分裂，它在眼前的衝突中極有可能存活下來。本文警告，單純的軍事行動無法達成政權更迭，因為統治精英在歷史上展現了持續應對危機和維持控制的能力。因此，美國必須將其戰略從對抗轉向謹慎的外交。華盛頓必須引導戰後對話，以防止現有精英掌握權力，而是為任何促進真正包容和人道政治轉型的談判設定極高的門檻。
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