ThinkTankWeekly

The Price of Peace in Ukraine

Foreign Affairs | 2026-02-16 | defense

Topics: Russia, Ukraine

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English Summary

The article argues that the initial Western objective of restoring Ukraine's full pre-2022 sovereignty over all internationally recognized territory has become strategically implausible. This shift in goal is attributed to the failure of Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive, which forced Western leaders to concede a new reality. Consequently, policy and strategy must pivot away from demanding full territorial restoration and instead focus on a more pragmatic, negotiated settlement that accepts Russia's de facto control over occupied regions. This suggests a necessary re-evaluation of victory conditions for international support.

中文摘要

本文論述，西方最初旨在恢復烏克蘭在所有國際承認領土上完全的、戰前2022年的主權目標，已在戰略上難以實現。這種目標轉變歸因於烏克蘭2023年反攻的失敗，迫使西方領導人不得不承認新的現實。因此，政策和戰略必須從要求完全恢復領土轉向，轉而著重於一個更務實的、協商的解決方案，該方案必須接受俄羅斯在佔領地區的實際控制。這暗示了國際支持的「勝利條件」需要進行必要的重新評估。

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