ThinkTankWeekly

How Iran Sees the War

Foreign Affairs | 2026-03-20 | middle_east

Topics: Middle East, Nuclear, Trade, United States

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

Contrary to U.S. and Israeli predictions of collapse, Iran views the conflict as a strategic opportunity to consolidate its regime's power and restore regional deterrence. The regime is leveraging the war to bolster domestic legitimacy, transforming internal dissent into a 'rally-around-the-flag' martyrdom culture, mirroring historical precedents like the Iran-Iraq War. Strategically, Iran has shifted toward raw offense, evidenced by closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening multiple choke points. Policymakers must recognize that Tehran perceives the conflict as having few rules, suggesting that continued military action risks rapid, unpredictable escalation and a severe global economic crisis.

中文摘要

與美國和以色列預測的政權崩潰相反,伊朗將此次衝突視為鞏固其政權權力和恢復區域威懾力的戰略機遇。該政權正利用戰爭來鞏固國內合法性,將內部異議轉化為一種「團結旗幟式」的殉道文化,這呼應了歷史上的先例,例如伊拉克-伊朗戰爭。從戰略角度來看,伊朗已轉向純粹的進攻姿態,證據包括封鎖霍爾木茲海峽並威脅多個關鍵瓶頸要道。政策制定者必須認識到,德黑蘭認為這場衝突缺乏規則,這暗示了持續的軍事行動將導致快速、不可預測的升級,並引發嚴重的全球經濟危機。

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-11-07 | defense | 2026-W45 | Topics: Indo-Pacific, Middle East, United States

    The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  2. 2.
    2026-11-07 | middle_east | 2026-W45 | Topics: China, Middle East, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  3. 3.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: China, Europe, Trade

    China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.

    Read at Foreign Affairs

  4. 4.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: AI, China, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.

    Read at CFR

  5. 5.
    2026-11-07 | economy | 2026-W45 | Topics: United States

    The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.

    Read at Brookings