Imperfect Equilibrium: Civil-Military Relations in Russian Defense Policymaking

Foreign Affairs | 2026-02-17 | defense

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

The article argues that Russian defense policymaking operates within an "imperfect equilibrium" between presidential authority and military leadership, characterized by cycles of reform and centralization. Key evidence traces Putin's efforts to control the armed forces, from the sweeping reforms of Anatoly Serdyukov to the subsequent rearmament under Sergei Shoigu. However, the military's structural flaws became critically evident during the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, effective military improvement requires deeper presidential involvement in decision-making and the significant militarization of the national economy.

中文摘要

本文論述俄羅斯國防政策制定在總統權威與軍方領導之間，運作於一種「不完美的平衡」之中，其特徵是改革與集權化的循環。關鍵證據追溯了普丁試圖控制武裝部隊的努力，從 Anatoly Serdyukov 進行的全面改革，到隨後由 Sergei Shoigu 推動的再武裝化。然而，軍方結構性的缺陷在 2022 年入侵烏克蘭期間變得極為明顯。因此，要實現有效的軍事提升，需要總統在決策過程中更深入地介入，並推動國家經濟的顯著軍事化。

Related Entries

1.

Wildfires and extreme heat show climate change is now Europe’s biggest security threat (Chatham House)

2026-09-02 | europe | 2026-W36 | Topics: Climate, Europe, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Ukraine

The Chatham House report argues that climate change represents Europe's greatest systemic security threat, citing recent extreme heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires that have caused massive economic losses, infrastructure failures, and excess deaths. These environmental shocks disrupt critical services (like energy supply) and increase vulnerability to non-conventional threats, forcing military resources to divert personnel away from traditional defense roles. To counter this, the report mandates a comprehensive security approach: treating climate adaptation as core national security spending, accelerating decarbonization to address root causes, and building robust societal resilience through coordinated civil preparedness.

Read at Chatham House
2.

Critical minerals need secure supply chains – increasingly that depends on responsible production (Chatham House)

2026-09-02 | economy | 2026-W36 | Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Russia, Trade, Ukraine

The security of critical mineral supply chains is increasingly dependent on responsible production practices, which are threatened by global geo-economic competition and climate change. Rapidly increasing demand for materials, coupled with geopolitical tensions, has led to a rise in human rights abuses and informal mining activities in producer states. To mitigate systemic risks, governments must avoid a 'race to the bottom' on standards and instead mandate universal adherence to responsible corporate action. Ultimately, the article argues that successful supply chain resilience requires engaging seriously with host countries, as producer nations are now taking the lead in setting global standards.

Read at Chatham House
3.

Why NATO and the Transatlantic Bond Will Outlast Trump (CFR)

2026-09-02 | defense | 2026-W36 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

The article argues that despite political volatility and threats from figures like Trump, the transatlantic alliance is fundamentally robust because both the US and Europe share critical mutual interests. This bond is sustained by deep economic ties ($2T+ trade) and the shared necessity of deterring Russian aggression on NATO's eastern flank, which makes a strategic divorce highly unlikely. For policy, Europe must adopt a strategy of pragmatic engagement—working within current political realities while aggressively increasing its defense spending to build capability. While self-reliance is necessary, the analysis cautions that true strategic autonomy remains politically challenging and requires continued reliance on US military power.

Read at CFR
4.

An update on Europe’s Russia sanctions (Brookings)

2026-09-02 | energy | 2026-W36 | Topics: Europe, Middle East, Russia, Trade, Ukraine, United States

Europe has emerged as a global leader in sanctioning Russia's 'shadow fleet,' significantly increasing its vessel designations and improving coordination with the UK and U.S. However, the analysis finds that these European sanctions alone have had only a limited impact on overall Russian oil exports from the Baltic Sea due to gaps in coverage. To maximize pressure on Russian revenue, the report argues that comprehensive action requires either the U.S. implementing broader secondary sanctions or Europe aggressively holding flag states accountable for oversight of flagged vessels. Collectively, these measures are necessary to significantly strengthen the enforcement of G7 price caps and constrain Russia's oil trade.

Read at Brookings
5.

Timeline: U.S-Canada Relations (CFR)

2026-09-02 | americas | 2026-W36 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Trade, United States

The historical trajectory of U.S.-Canada relations reveals a persistent tension between deep economic interdependence and the maintenance of national sovereignty. Key evidence includes major security pacts like NORAD, which cemented continental defense cooperation, alongside massive trade agreements such as NAFTA and the Auto Pact, which created an integrated market. However, this integration is repeatedly challenged by disputes over tariffs (Smoot-Hawley), territorial claims (Northwest Passage), and perceived loss of autonomy. Strategically, the enduring nature of these ties suggests that while friction points will persist, cooperation remains mandatory for both economies, necessitating policy frameworks that balance shared prosperity with respect for distinct national interests.

Read at CFR