The analysis argues that Iran's long-standing political and military influence in Iraq is rapidly diminishing due to internal shifts and growing Iraqi resentment over foreign interference. Key evidence includes prominent Iranian-backed militias beginning to disarm or integrate with state forces, signaling a loss of independent power and control within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This shift suggests that Baghdad is prioritizing national sovereignty and centralizing authority, allowing Iraq to potentially pivot its economic and political alignment toward the wider Gulf region. The primary implication is that Iran will lose its ability to use Iraq as a stable staging ground for projecting regional power, significantly weakening its broader 'axis of resistance.'
How Geopolitics Overran Globalization
English Summary
The article argues that the historical trajectory of globalization, which promised universal economic prosperity through open flows of goods and capital, is being fundamentally superseded by geopolitical competition. This shift is evidenced by states prioritizing national security and resilience over pure economic efficiency, leading to the fragmentation of global supply chains and technological decoupling. Consequently, policymakers must abandon the assumption of frictionless markets, adopting 'de-risking' and 'friend-shoring' strategies that integrate economic policy with strategic state planning. This mandates a pivot toward regionalized, politically aligned economic blocs rather than a unified global market.
中文摘要
本文論述全球化的歷史軌跡曾承諾透過商品和資本的自由流動實現普遍的經濟繁榮，但此趨勢正被地緣政治競爭根本性地取代。這種轉變體現在各國將國家安全和韌性置於純粹的經濟效率之上，導致全球供應鏈的碎片化和技術脫鉤。因此，政策制定者必須放棄「無摩擦市場」的假設，轉而採用「去風險化」（de-risking）和「友岸外包」（friend-shoring）等策略，將經濟政策與戰略國家規劃相結合。這要求我們轉向區域化、政治上一致的經濟集團，而非追求統一的全球市場。
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