ThinkTankWeekly

Why Putin Still Prefers War

Foreign Affairs | 2026-01-13 | europe

Topics: Russia, Europe

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English Summary

The article argues that Vladimir Putin's preference for conflict is a calculated strategic choice rather than an unavoidable geopolitical fate. It likely draws on historical diplomatic failures, contrasting periods of détente with current aggressive actions to demonstrate that confrontation is a policy decision. The analysis suggests that Russia views military conflict as a primary tool for achieving core national objectives, making purely diplomatic solutions insufficient. Policymakers must therefore adjust strategies to account for this deep-seated preference for confrontation, requiring robust deterrence and structural containment measures.

中文摘要

本文論述普京偏好衝突的傾向,並非不可避免的地緣政治宿命,而是一種經過計算的戰略選擇。分析可能援引歷史外交失敗的案例,將過去的緊張緩和時期與當前的侵略行動進行對比,以證明對抗本身就是一種政策決策。該分析指出,俄羅斯將軍事衝突視為實現核心國家目標的主要工具,使得純粹的外交解決方案顯得不足。因此,政策制定者必須調整戰略,以應對這種根深蒂固的對抗偏好,這要求實施強固的威懾和結構性的遏制措施。

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