Less Foreign Aid, More Climate Risk

Foreign Affairs | 2026-01-16 | energy

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English Summary

The article argues that escalating climate change poses massive, quantifiable economic risks, making the reduction of foreign aid a dangerous policy choice. Evidence highlights that global losses from natural disasters and climate-related disruptions already run into hundreds of billions of dollars annually, with projections suggesting physical climate risks could consume 3.2% to 5.1% of world GDP by 2050. Consequently, policy must pivot away from simple aid cuts toward strategic, large-scale investments. These investments must prioritize building climate resilience, upgrading critical infrastructure, and establishing robust early warning systems in vulnerable developing nations to mitigate future economic shocks.

中文摘要

本文提出，氣候變遷日益惡化，帶來巨大且可量化的經濟風險，使得削減外援成為一個極具風險的政策選擇。證據顯示，全球因自然災害和氣候相關中斷造成的損失每年已達數千億美元，且預測指出，到 2050 年，氣候物理風險可能佔全球 GDP 的 3.2% 至 5.1%。因此，政策必須從簡單的削減援助，轉向戰略性、大規模的投資。這些投資必須優先考慮在脆弱的發展中國家建立氣候韌性、升級關鍵基礎設施，並建立穩健的早期預警系統，以減緩未來的經濟衝擊。

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