The article argues that recent executive overreach and politicization have severely undermined established norms of U.S. civil-military relations. To restore professional standards, the incoming Congress must actively exercise its oversight powers, moving beyond mere criticism to demanding transparency in defense policy and personnel decisions. Key reforms include enforcing meritocratic promotion processes, requiring documented justification for senior officer removals, and preventing the partisan use of the military. These actions are crucial for bolstering public trust and ensuring the military remains a nonpartisan instrument of civilian control.
The Real Thucydides Trap
English Summary
The article posits that the escalating rivalry between the United States and China mirrors the historical 'Thucydides Trap,' suggesting that the relationship is inherently prone to conflict as a rising power challenges an established order. The analysis synthesizes geopolitical concerns, tracking China's growing military and economic capabilities against the backdrop of deep, yet contradictory, interdependence. For policymakers, the implication is that simply viewing the rivalry through a lens of confrontation is insufficient; instead, strategies must incorporate historical insights to manage the structural tensions and mitigate the risk of miscalculation. This requires balancing competition with mechanisms for stable, long-term coexistence.
中文摘要
本文提出，美國與中國日益升級的競爭，呼應了歷史上的「修昔底德陷阱」，暗示著由於一個崛起的大國挑戰既有秩序，雙方關係本質上就容易走向衝突。該分析綜合了地緣政治考量，在深層但又充滿矛盾的相互依賴性背景下，追蹤了中國不斷增長的軍事和經濟實力。對於政策制定者而言，其啟示是，僅從對抗的角度看待這場競爭是不足夠的；相反，策略必須納入歷史洞察，以管理結構性張力並減輕誤判的風險。這要求在競爭與建立穩定、長期的共存機制之間取得平衡。
Related Entries
-
1.
-
2.
The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
-
3.
China's economic strategy is characterized by a persistent 'economics of denial,' prioritizing massive state-directed investment in advanced technology over addressing weak domestic consumption. This approach is rooted in a flawed belief that controlling physical capital will automatically generate productivity and wage growth, ignoring the structural imbalance where domestic demand consistently falls short of supply. This overinvestment and underconsumption model is unsustainable. Consequently, Beijing's policies will continue to generate global deflationary pressures and escalating trade friction, necessitating a fundamental pivot toward consumption-led growth for long-term stability.
-
4.
The Blue Wave signals significant voter frustration with cost of living and inflation, giving Congress a mandate to prioritize affordability and cost-reduction measures. Economically, the rapid build-out of AI data centers is creating localized stress, driving up skilled labor wages and straining resources, while also facing constraints from power grids and potential local regulatory backlash. Policymakers must manage this 'sequencing issue'—addressing rising costs before full productivity gains from AI can materialize—and anticipate shifts in global data center infrastructure as the market matures.
-
5.
The built environment workforce, comprising 15.3 million workers across 95 occupations, is foundational to modern infrastructure and economic stability. While highly paid, the workforce suffers from significant demographic imbalances, being disproportionately white and male, and often lacking clear career progression pathways. To prevent project delays and cost overruns, policy must mandate that capital asset owners treat labor market forecasting as core to project planning. Strategic interventions are required to strengthen career pipelines through robust apprenticeships, improve retention, and actively recruit younger and more diverse workers.