The analysis argues that Iran's long-standing political and military influence in Iraq is rapidly diminishing due to internal shifts and growing Iraqi resentment over foreign interference. Key evidence includes prominent Iranian-backed militias beginning to disarm or integrate with state forces, signaling a loss of independent power and control within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). This shift suggests that Baghdad is prioritizing national sovereignty and centralizing authority, allowing Iraq to potentially pivot its economic and political alignment toward the wider Gulf region. The primary implication is that Iran will lose its ability to use Iraq as a stable staging ground for projecting regional power, significantly weakening its broader 'axis of resistance.'
Don’t Partition Sudan Again
English Summary
Sudan is rapidly descending into a de facto partition, characterized by rival military and political control rather than a unified state. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has consolidated power in the north and center, while the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) dominate Darfur and Kordofan, each establishing rival governments and diverging economies. This fragmentation risks turning the civil conflict into a permanent, multi-sided struggle for regional dominance. Policymakers must therefore prioritize diplomatic efforts aimed at preventing further fragmentation and supporting a national reconciliation framework, rather than engaging with the warring factions' claims.
中文摘要
蘇丹正迅速走向實質分裂，其特徵是敵對的軍事和政治控制，而非統一的國家體系。蘇丹武裝部隊（SAF）在北部和中部鞏固了權力，而快速支援部隊（RSF）則主導達爾富爾和科爾多法南，兩方各自建立對抗性的政府和分歧的經濟體系。這種碎片化風險可能將內戰轉變為一場永久性的、多方爭奪區域主導權的鬥爭。因此，政策制定者必須將外交努力的重點放在預防進一步的碎片化，並支持國家和解框架，而非介入與交戰派系提出的主張。
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