The rapid financing of the AI boom through massive corporate debt issuance is creating significant stress on global financial markets. This influx of private capital forces competition with government Treasury bonds, as AI companies offer higher yields than equivalent sovereign debt, thereby pushing up long-term interest rates. While this signals strong investment demand for AI, it raises concerns about systemic risk and the potential destabilization of core bond markets. Policymakers must navigate the tension between fueling critical technological growth and maintaining stable public borrowing costs to prevent a financial crisis.
Maximum Pressure on Iran Will Fail
English Summary
The article argues that decades of 'maximum pressure'—whether military or economic—will fail because the Islamic Republic of Iran is fundamentally resilient and contradictory in its foreign policy. Key evidence shows that sanctions have proven symbolic, while recent conflicts taught Tehran how to survive massive strikes while retaining enough capability (e.g., missile/drone programs) to impose steep costs on global choke points like the Strait of Hormuz. Consequently, the U.S. has severely weakened its own ability to exert pressure, making a return to traditional coercive tactics impossible. Policy-wise, Washington must abandon this failed playbook and undergo a fundamental strategic reckoning regarding how it engages with Iran.
中文摘要
本文論述，數十年來實施的「最大壓力」政策——無論是軍事還是經濟層面——終將失敗。其核心原因在於伊朗伊斯蘭共和國具備根本性的韌性，且其外交政策本身存在內在矛盾。關鍵證據顯示，制裁措施已淪為象徵性姿態；而近期衝突則教會了德黑蘭如何在承受大規模打擊的同時，仍保留足夠的能力（例如飛彈/無人機計畫），以對霍爾木茲海峽等全球要衝施加巨大成本。因此，美國自身執行壓制的能力已嚴重削弱，使得重回傳統強制戰術變得不可能。從政策層面來看，華盛頓必須放棄這套失敗的劇本，並就其如何應對伊朗問題進行根本性的戰略重新評估。
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