The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Is the Iran War Coming to an End?
English Summary
While a cease-fire agreement between Washington and Tehran may temporarily halt fighting, analysts argue this marks not an end to conflict, but a shift toward a 'New Grand Strategy' for Iran. This strategy emphasizes leveraging regional assets, particularly control over the Strait of Hormuz, as its primary source of economic and strategic power. For policymakers, the key takeaway is that future negotiations—including those on nuclear issues—will hinge entirely on U.S. credibility and willingness to provide meaningful concessions. Therefore, policy must pivot from military containment to managing Iran's deep-seated economic leverage and anticipating how it will use its regional choke points as tools of deterrence.
中文摘要
分析人士指出，華盛頓與德黑蘭之間達成停火協議或許能暫時中止衝突，但這並非戰爭的終結，而標誌著伊朗轉向一種「新大戰略」。該戰略強調利用區域資產，特別是控制霍爾木茲海峽，作為其經濟和戰略力量的主要來源。對於政策制定者而言，關鍵啟示是：未來包括核議題在內的談判，將完全取決於美國的信譽度以及提供實質讓步的意願。因此，政策必須從軍事遏制轉向管理伊朗根深蒂固的經濟槓桿，並預測其如何利用區域要衝作為威懾工具。
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