The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
How the War Saved the Iranian Regime
English Summary
The article argues that external military pressure, such as the U.S.-Israeli war, intended to topple the Iranian regime has paradoxically strengthened it by allowing hard-line elements to consolidate power. Instead of collapsing due to internal economic and political discontent, the regime leveraged the crisis to centralize authority, empowering the IRGC and adopting a more aggressive, militarized posture. Policymakers should abandon the assumption that Iran is a brittle, leader-centric state susceptible to rapid collapse. Continued intervention risks hardening the regime's resolve, increasing its nuclear capabilities, and making it less predictable and more dangerous to regional stability.
中文摘要
本文論述，外部軍事壓力，例如旨在推翻伊朗政權的美國與以色列的戰爭，反而產生了悖論式的效應，強化了該政權。政權並未因內部的經濟和政治不滿而崩潰，反而利用了危機來集中權力，賦予了革命衛隊（IRGC）權力，並採取了更具侵略性和軍事化的姿態。政策制定者應放棄「伊朗是一個脆弱、以領袖為中心的、易於迅速崩潰的國家」這一假設。持續的干預不僅有助於鞏固政權的決心，還會增加其核能力，使其更難預測，並對區域穩定構成更大的威脅。
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