The Inertia of Russia’s War

Foreign Affairs | 2026-06-03 | middle_east

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English Summary

The Foreign Affairs article argues that Russia’s war in Ukraine has created a ‘inertia’ driven by deeply embedded domestic incentives, making a swift end to the conflict highly unlikely and potentially dangerous for President Putin. Over four years, Russia’s economy and society have reorganized around war, fostering a self-sustaining institutional and economic order dependent on military spending and a thriving shadow economy. Despite wartime economic gains, inequality remains high, and the benefits of increased military spending are unevenly distributed, primarily accruing to a small segment of the population. Any attempt to end the war without addressing these entrenched dynamics risks triggering economic dislocation, social upheaval, and a political reckoning the regime is ill-equipped to handle, effectively trapping Russia in a ‘war trap’.

中文摘要

《外交事務》的文章認為，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭造成了一種由根深蒂固的國內動機所驅動的『慣性』，使得衝突迅速結束的可能性極低，並且對普京總統構成潛在危險。在過去四年中，俄羅斯經濟和社會已經重新組織，圍繞戰爭展開，構建了一個依賴軍事開支和蓬勃發展的影子經濟的自我延展制度體系。儘管在戰爭期間經濟有所增長，但貧富差距仍然很高，增加的軍事開支的利益也並非均勻地分配，主要流向人口中極少數的群體。如果沒有解決這些根深蒂固的動態，試圖結束戰爭的任何舉措都可能引發經濟動蕩、社會動員以及該政權無法應付的政治 reckoning，從而使俄羅斯陷入『戰爭陷阱』。

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