ThinkTankWeekly

Bosnia’s Unfinished Peace

Foreign Affairs | 2026-01-14 | europe

Topics: Europe, Ukraine, United States

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English Summary

The peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina, established by the Dayton Accords, is highly fragile and remains incomplete. The core challenge lies in the complex power-sharing structure, which requires sustained international oversight to prevent ethnic tensions from resurfacing. This oversight is currently eroding due to the geopolitical focus of major powers, such as Europe's attention on Ukraine and potential reductions in U.S. security assistance. The resulting vacuum increases the risk of renewed instability and conflict in the Balkans, necessitating renewed international diplomatic and security engagement.

中文摘要

波斯尼亞和黑爾塞哥維納透過《戴頓協定》建立的和平局勢極度脆弱,且仍未臻於完善。核心挑戰在於其複雜的權力分享結構,這要求持續的國際監督以防止族群緊張局勢復燃。然而,由於主要大國的地緣政治焦點轉移——例如歐洲將注意力集中於烏克蘭,以及美國安全援助可能減少——這種監督機制正逐漸被侵蝕。由此產生的真空狀態增加了巴爾幹地區再次陷入不穩定和衝突的風險,因此有必要重新啟動國際外交和安全層面的參與。

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