The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Will the UK’s next prime minister finally have a ‘national conversation’ on defence?
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis argues that while the UK government plans a 'national conversation' on defense, this effort is critical for building public trust and securing political consent for increased military spending. Given rising hybrid threats—including disinformation and cyber-attacks—the UK faces a strategic challenge of low public confidence and fragmented societal resilience. To counter these risks, the report stresses that merely announcing investments is insufficient; a 'whole-of-government' approach must link defense policy with civic education and transparency. Ultimately, building trust through open dialogue about threats and society’s role is necessary to achieve national cohesion and justify higher levels of defense expenditure.
中文摘要
查塔姆館的分析指出，儘管英國政府計劃就國防議題進行「國家層面的對話」，但這項努力對於建立公眾信任和確保支持增加軍事開支的政治共識至關重要。鑑於假訊息和網路攻擊等日益增長的混合威脅，英國面臨著公眾信心低落和社會韌性分散的戰略挑戰。為應對這些風險，報告強調僅宣布投資是不夠的；必須採取「全政府層面」的方法，將國防政策與公民教育和透明度連結起來。最終，透過公開討論威脅和社會角色來建立信任，對於實現國家凝聚力並證明提高國防開支的合理性是必要的。
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