The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Rules against power: Does the world need a new economic alliance to balance the US and China? Independent Thinking podcast
English Summary
A new Chatham House report proposes creating an economic alliance—a 'third pole'—to prevent the US and China from undermining the rules-based global economic order. The analysis explores how such a bloc could function, which countries might join, and how major powers would likely react to this challenge. This suggests growing recognition of the need for multilateral economic coordination to address great power competition and preserve global governance structures, though implementation faces significant political obstacles.
中文摘要
一份新的查田學會報告提議建立一個經濟聯盟，即「第三極」，旨在防止美國和中國破壞基於規則的全球經濟秩序。該分析探討了此類集團的運作機制、潛在成員國，以及主要大國可能對此挑戰的反應。這顯示出各方日益認識到，為應對大國競爭並維護全球治理結構，多邊經濟協調至關重要，儘管其實施仍面臨重大的政治障礙。
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