The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s energy system
English Summary
Chatham House argues that Russia’s sustained, precision strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have become a strategic campaign to erode civilian resilience and force Kyiv to redirect scarce wartime resources from defense to emergency repairs. The event framing highlights compounding evidence: prolonged electricity shortages (in some areas down to a few hours per day), winter-time disruption of heating and water, economic losses from repeated infrastructure damage, and heightened humanitarian risk including potential new displacement flows into Europe. It also emphasizes that the pressure is systemic rather than episodic, with damage now threatening continuity of essential urban services and social stability. Policy implications are to pair immediate humanitarian and grid-repair support with longer-term protection measures and faster deployment of decentralized energy systems, while coordinating state, local, and civil-society resilience efforts with sustained partner backing.
中文摘要
查塔姆研究所（Chatham House）指出，俄羅斯對烏克蘭能源基礎設施持續且具精準性的打擊，已演變為一場戰略性行動，目的在削弱平民韌性，並迫使基輔將稀缺的戰時資源由防務轉向緊急修復。該活動框架強調多重且相互疊加的證據：長時間停電（部分地區每日僅剩數小時供電）、冬季供暖與供水受擾、基礎設施反覆受損所造成的經濟損失，以及人道風險升高（包括可能出現流入歐洲的新一波人口外移）。其亦指出，此種壓力屬於系統性而非偶發性，現有破壞已威脅到城市基本公共服務的連續性與社會穩定。政策意涵在於：在提供即時人道援助與電網修復支持的同時，應推進較長期的防護措施與分散式能源系統的加速部署，並在持續夥伴支持下，協調國家、地方與公民社會層級的韌性作為。
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