The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Marion Messmer: ‘Peace made by women is more durable’
English Summary
Marion Messmer argues that international security is becoming increasingly volatile due to the proliferation of nuclear deterrence and the democratization of military technology like drones. She highlights how intangible advancements in AI and cyber-operations are reshaping the battlefield, making it harder to track adversaries and manage escalation. Ultimately, she suggests that while technology and non-state actors present significant new risks, incorporating diverse perspectives into the male-dominated security field is essential for building more resilient and durable peace.
中文摘要
Marion Messmer 指出，隨著核威懾的擴散以及無人機等軍事技術的普及化，國際安全局勢正日趨動盪。她強調人工智能與網絡行動等無形技術的進步正重新定義戰場，增加了追蹤對手及管控升級風險的難度。她最終主張，儘管技術演進與非國家行為者帶來了顯著的新風險，但若要建立更具韌性且持久的和平，將多元觀點納入長期由男性主導的安全領域至關重要。
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