The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
From Destruction to Recovery: Building Ukraine’s Future Prosperity
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis highlights that Ukraine faces a staggering reconstruction challenge, with the total cost of recovery estimated at nearly $588 billion. Achieving economic stability requires a massive, coordinated effort involving the Ukrainian state, Western donors, the private sector, and civil society. The primary strategy involves deep structural reforms and accelerating integration with the European Union to catalyze growth and ensure a predictable business environment. Policy efforts must therefore focus on developing long-term security assurances, implementing market reforms, and strategically positioning Ukraine within emerging European value chains.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析指出，烏克蘭面臨著艱鉅的重建挑戰，其總恢復成本估計接近5,880億美元。要實現經濟穩定，需要烏克蘭國家、西方捐助者、私營部門和公民社會共同參與的大規模、協調的努力。主要策略包括進行深層次的結構改革，並加速與歐盟的整合，以催化增長並確保可預測的商業環境。因此，政策努力必須著重於制定長期安全保障、實施市場改革，以及戰略性地將烏克蘭定位於新興的歐洲價值鏈中。
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