The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Kazakhstan referendum: The new constitution demonstrates a diminishing interest in Western values
English Summary
Kazakhstan’s comprehensive constitutional overhaul signals a strategic departure from Western liberal models in favor of a state-led, institutionalized authoritarian system similar to China’s. The amendments consolidate President Tokayev’s power and assert domestic law supremacy over international treaties, potentially undermining legal protections for foreign investors in the extractive sectors. While the reforms may strengthen national sovereignty against Russian influence, they also provide the state with greater leverage to restrict civil liberties and manage long-term political succession.
中文摘要
哈薩克的全面憲法改革標誌著其戰略性地背離了西方自由模式，轉向一種類似中國的國家主導、制度化威權體制。修正案鞏固了托卡耶夫總統的權力，並主張國內法高於國際條約，這可能削弱對採掘業外國投資者的法律保護。雖然這些改革可能有助於加強國家主權以抵禦俄羅斯的影響，但同時也賦予國家更多權限來限制公民自由並管理長期的政治繼承。
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