The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Film screening: ‘Facing War’
English Summary
The film "Facing War" provides an exclusive, inside look at NATO's high-stakes diplomacy during a critical period, showcasing the alliance's internal decision-making spaces. It documents tense negotiations with world leaders such as US President Joe Biden, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, focusing on support for Ukraine. The documentary highlights the challenges of balancing aid to Ukraine with concerns about escalating the conflict, reflecting the fragile unity and geopolitical friction within the alliance.
中文摘要
電影《面對戰爭》（Facing War）獨家深入揭示了北約在關鍵時期的高風險外交，展示了該聯盟內部的決策空間。影片記錄了與美國總統喬·拜登、土耳其總統雷傑普·塔伊普·埃爾多安和匈牙利總理維克托·歐爾班等世界領導人就支持烏克蘭問題進行的緊張談判。這部紀錄片強調了在平衡對烏克蘭援助與對衝突升級的擔憂之間所面臨的挑戰，反映了聯盟內部脆弱的團結和地緣政治摩擦。
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