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In the face of growing AI cyber threats, do middle powers have agency?

Chatham House | 2026-06-08 | diplomacy

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English Summary

The proliferation of advanced AI cyber models, restricted primarily to US and Chinese partners, is creating a critical global cyber defense gap for middle powers. While alignment with a superpower offers immediate security benefits, the analysis argues this path is insufficient and does not guarantee access during a crisis. Instead, middle powers must prioritize 'coordination,' leveraging a rare window of international awareness to strengthen multi-stakeholder networks. This involves enhancing institutional cooperation, information sharing, and cross-border rapid response capabilities to build collective cyber resilience and avoid geopolitical dependence.

中文摘要

先進AI網路模型（cyber models）的普及，目前主要受限於美中兩大夥伴，這正在為中等權力國家（middle powers）造成關鍵的全球網路防禦缺口。儘管與超級大國結盟能提供即時的安全效益，但本分析認為此途徑不足，且無法在危機時期保證獲得必要的支援。相反地，中等權力國家必須將重點放在「協調」（coordination）上，利用國際意識的稀有窗口期，來強化多方利益相關者網絡。這包括提升制度性合作、資訊共享，以及跨國界快速應變能力，從而建立集體網路韌性，避免過度依賴地緣政治。

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