The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Europe after Nord Stream: The limits of energy security
English Summary
The sabotage of Nord Stream exposed profound vulnerabilities in Europe's energy security and critical undersea infrastructure to geopolitical threats. This event highlighted that reliance on interconnected networks makes the continent susceptible to sophisticated grey-zone warfare tactics, challenging traditional notions of energy stability. Consequently, the analysis argues that merely achieving energy independence is insufficient; Europe must urgently build systemic resilience and develop robust defense strategies to deter future attacks on its vital physical and digital infrastructure.
中文摘要
北溪管線的蓄意破壞，暴露了歐洲在能源安全和關鍵海底基礎設施方面面臨的地緣政治威脅下的深層脆弱性。此事件凸顯出，對相互連接網絡的依賴使大陸容易受到複雜的灰色地帶戰術攻擊，挑戰了傳統的能源穩定觀念。因此，本分析認為，單純達成能源獨立是遠遠不夠的；歐洲必須緊急建立系統性的韌性，並制定強健的防禦策略，以威懾未來針對其重要實體和數位基礎設施的襲擊。
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