The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Why a ‘whole-of-society’ model is essential for Ukraine’s recovery
English Summary
The Chatham House article argues that Ukraine's post-war recovery necessitates adopting a 'whole-of-society' model, mirroring the nation’s wartime resilience. Key evidence shows that successful recovery cannot rely solely on state authorities but requires effective collaboration among local governments, civil society organizations (CSOs), the private sector, and international donors. The paper emphasizes that this inclusive approach is crucial for ensuring that reconstruction processes are comprehensive and sustainable. Policy-wise, this implies a strategic shift toward fostering deep public-private partnerships and institutionalizing collaborative mechanisms to maximize resource mobilization.
中文摘要
這篇來自 Chatham House 的文章論點指出，烏克蘭戰後復甦需要採納「全社會動員」模式，以呼應其在戰時展現的韌性。關鍵證據顯示，成功的重建不能僅依賴國家權威機構，更需地方政府、公民社會組織（CSOs）、私營部門以及國際捐助者之間進行有效的協作。該論文強調，這種包容性的方法對於確保重建過程的全面性和可持續性至關重要。從政策層面來看，這意味著必須戰略轉向，培育深度的公私夥伴關係，並制度化協作機制，以最大化資源動員。
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