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How can crisis-affected countries survive in the 'New World Disorder'?

Chatham House | 2026-02-22 | diplomacy

Topics: China, Climate, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, United States

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English Summary

The event argues that worsening humanitarian crises are being driven less by isolated emergencies and more by a structural geopolitical shift from a rules-based order to transactional power politics. Drawing on the IRC’s 2026 Emergency Watchlist, it highlights severe stress signals: rising conflict, extreme food insecurity, and mass displacement alongside declining aid and weakening international cooperation. A key indicator is concentration of risk, with 20 Watchlist countries accounting for 84% of global humanitarian need despite representing only 12% of the world’s population, increasing spillover pressures beyond their borders. The policy implication is that governments and donors should pair near-term protection of vulnerable communities with reforms that build a more resilient, sustainable humanitarian system under conditions of persistent great-power competition.

中文摘要

該活動主張,日益惡化的人道危機,其驅動因素已不再主要是孤立的緊急事件,而是國際地緣政治結構性轉變:由以規則為基礎的秩序,轉向交易式權力政治。根據 IRC《2026 年緊急觀察名單》,多項嚴重壓力訊號同時浮現,包括衝突升高、極端糧食不安全,以及大規模流離失所;與此同時,援助減少、國際合作弱化。關鍵指標之一是風險集中化:20 個觀察名單國家雖僅占全球人口 12%,卻承擔全球 84% 的人道需求,並加劇其邊界之外的外溢壓力。其政策意涵在於,各國政府與捐助方應在短期保護脆弱社群的同時,推動制度改革,以在大國持續競爭的條件下,建立更具韌性且可持續的人道體系。

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