The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Hungary election: Orbán has been defeated – but will Orbánism survive?
English Summary
Orbán's defeat in the Hungarian election signals a rejection of his entrenched political system, driven primarily by domestic concerns like economic stagnation rather than geopolitical narratives. While the political model of 'Orbánism' may persist in opposition, the immediate implication is positive for EU cohesion, as the new government is expected to be less obstructive and more predictable in its relations with Brussels. This shift improves the EU's overall security posture, potentially easing coordination on issues like Ukraine and strengthening the center-right European People's Party (EPP). Strategically, the result serves as a warning to European populists that economic distress can overturn even the most durable political systems.
中文摘要
歐爾班在匈牙利選舉中的敗選，顯示了選民對其根深蒂固的政治體系的拒絕，其驅動因素主要來自經濟停滯等國內關切，而非地緣政治敘事。雖然「歐爾班主義」的政治模式在反對陣營中可能持續存在，但其直接的意義對歐盟的凝聚力是正面的，因為新政府預計在與布魯塞爾的關係中將更少阻撓、更具可預測性。這一轉變改善了歐盟的整體安全態勢，可能為烏克蘭等議題的協調帶來便利，並鞏固了中右翼的歐洲人民黨（EPP）。從戰略角度來看，這一結果向歐洲民粹主義者發出警告：經濟困境甚至可以推翻最穩固的政治體系。
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The article analyzes the deep ideological split within the Democratic Party regarding the future of U.S. foreign policy, pitting centrists against progressives. Centrists generally advocate for restoring a reformed U.S.-led international order and strengthening alliances, while progressives argue for a multipolar world that prioritizes transnational threats like climate change and AI over geopolitical competition. This division is most pronounced in the Middle East, where centrists push for greater pressure on Israel and a regional settlement, a shift largely welcomed by progressives. The core finding is that these internal debates threaten to consume a future administration with indecision, making it difficult for the U.S. to project a coherent and unified global strategy.