The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
Trump’s approach to Taiwan could jeopardize its future. Indo-Pacific allies are taking note
English Summary
The Chatham House analysis warns that Donald Trump's rhetoric and potential policy shifts regarding Taiwan threaten its future and undermine decades of US security guarantees. Key concerns include the suggestion of using arms sales as a negotiating chip with China, which could violate US assurances, and the downplaying of US commitment to conflict. By echoing Beijing's narrative, Trump risks legitimizing China's claims while sowing doubt among the Taiwanese public about the credibility of US support. Strategically, these actions could embolden Beijing to test American resolve and could lead to the US-China relationship being governed by Beijing's definition of 'strategic stability,' thereby weakening Taiwan's defense posture.
中文摘要
查塔姆學會的分析警告指出，唐納德·川普的言論和潛在的政策轉變，對台灣的未來構成威脅，並動搖了數十年來美國的安全承諾。主要擔憂包括：暗示將軍售作為與中國談判的籌碼，這可能違反美國的承諾；以及淡化美國在衝突中的承諾。透過呼應北京的敘事，川普有使中國的主張合法化的風險，同時也可能在台灣民眾心中播下對美國支持可信度的疑慮。從戰略角度來看，這些行為可能會鼓勵北京試探美國的決心，並可能導致美中關係受制於北京對「戰略穩定」的定義，從而削弱台灣的防禦態勢。
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