ThinkTankWeekly

Could Vietnam’s new South China Sea bases open a ‘Pandora’s box’ of competitive island building?

Chatham House | 2026-03-19 | china_indopacific

Topics: China, Taiwan

Visit original source

ThinkTankWeekly provides a curated entry and summary only. Full text and PDF remain on the publisher's website.

English Summary

Vietnam is rapidly expanding its military footprint in the South China Sea by conducting land reclamation and infrastructure development across all 21 of its controlled features in the Spratly Islands. This strategic move, which includes building harbors and airstrips, aims to counter China's established presence and assert sovereignty over contested maritime zones. The escalation of competitive island building among regional claimants increases the risk of maritime clashes and threatens the stability of vital global shipping lanes. Ultimately, this militarization could trigger a broader cycle of regional tension, complicating international efforts to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Related Entries

  1. 1.
    2026-07-13 | china_indopacific | 2026-W29 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia, Taiwan, Trade, Ukraine, United States

    The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.

    Read at Brookings

  2. 2.
    2026-07-13 | defense | 2026-W29 | Topics: Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Nuclear, Russia

    The Chatham House analysis concludes that the UK's Defence Investment Plan (DIP) will be viewed by NATO allies as a mixed bag, primarily due to its failure to commit to higher GDP spending targets. However, the plan signals critical strategic improvements by emphasizing novel technologies—such as autonomous systems and digital infrastructure—and enhancing readiness. Crucially, the DIP adopts an international focus through major collaborative programs (e.g., AUKUS, GCAP) and establishes a new National Armaments Director Group (NADG). This structural shift toward flexible, portfolio-based collaboration is strategically valuable for NATO allies seeking reliable partners as US conventional forces reduce their European presence.

    Read at Chatham House

  3. 3.
    2026-07-13 | defense | 2026-W29 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, United States

    The article argues that the U.S., through recent policy signals—such as questioning NATO's value or sympathizing with great-power territorial claims—is inadvertently adopting the core tenets of non-alignment, prioritizing transactional national interests over binding alliances. Historically, while non-alignment allowed developing nations to gain benefits without commitment, the analysis notes that this approach lacks the deep trust and shared obligations necessary for robust security structures. The implication is critical: by undermining established alliances, the U.S. risks losing its greatest strategic asset—the network of mutual commitments—as allies actively seek alternative bilateral or regional defense pacts.

    Read at CFR

  4. 4.
    2026-07-13 | china_indopacific | 2026-W29 | Topics: China, Europe, Indo-Pacific, Middle East, Russia, Trade, United States

    Myanmar has collapsed into Asia’s deadliest conflict, marked by massive economic collapse, widespread famine, and extreme brutality from the military junta. Despite this catastrophic humanitarian crisis, international actors—including major powers and regional blocs like ASEAN—are largely ignoring or withdrawing support for democratic forces. This neglect allows the junta to consolidate power, receiving critical military aid from authoritarian allies such as Russia and Belarus. Policy implications suggest that global indifference is enabling a failed state environment, making Myanmar a highly volatile flashpoint whose instability threatens broader Indo-Pacific security.

    Read at CFR

  5. 5.
    2026-07-13 | tech | 2026-W29 | Topics: AI, China, Climate, Indo-Pacific, Trade

    Global tech governance is rapidly maturing, with nations implementing stringent regulations across AI, data privacy, and model risk management (e.g., India's mandated 'kill switches' and Singapore’s GenAI guidelines). Industrial policy remains a key focus, evidenced by South Korea's semiconductor special act and China's comprehensive plans for green energy infrastructure and data centers. These coordinated state efforts signal a trend toward highly regulated, nationalistic technological development, requiring policymakers to navigate complex regulatory fragmentation while securing critical supply chains and maintaining economic resilience.

    Read at CSIS