The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
How can Sheinbaum’s Mexico coexist peacefully with Trump’s America?
English Summary
Mexico is at a critical juncture under President Sheinbaum, who is driving significant internal reforms across governance, the rule of law, and democratic institutions. Externally, Mexico's relationship with the United States is becoming increasingly complex, characterized by deepening cooperation in trade, migration, and security alongside rising tensions over sovereignty and democratic standards. The central strategic challenge is how Sheinbaum will navigate these competing pressures. Mexico's internal political trajectory and foreign policy signals are thus crucial, as they will define the stability of US-Mexico relations and influence broader regional stability in the years ahead.
中文摘要
在雪恩鮑姆總統的領導下，墨西哥正處於關鍵時刻，她正在推動涵蓋治理、法治和民主制度的重大內部改革。在外部層面，墨西哥與美國的關係正變得日益複雜，其特點是在貿易、移民和安全領域深化合作，但同時也伴隨著關於主權和民主標準的緊張局勢上升。核心戰略挑戰在於雪恩鮑姆將如何平衡這些相互競爭的壓力。因此，墨西哥的內部政治軌跡和外交政策信號至關重要，因為它們將決定美墨關係的穩定性，並影響未來更廣泛的區域穩定。
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