What lies ahead for Belarus?

Chatham House | 2026-02-22 | diplomacy

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English Summary

The event argues that Belarus’s regime is using selective prisoner releases as tactical diplomacy rather than signaling genuine political liberalization, while domestic hopes for democratic change have sharply receded since 2020. As evidence, it highlights the late-2025 release and deportation of 123 political prisoners, including Ales Bialiatski and Maria Kalesnikava, framed as a gesture to the US administration amid ongoing repression. The discussion centers on how current US–Belarus contacts should be interpreted and what kind of Western approach can still preserve pressure for political change. The policy implication is that Western governments should pursue conditional engagement tied to concrete human-rights outcomes, avoid normalizing authoritarian rule, and sustain long-term support for Belarusian democratic forces in exile and at home.

中文摘要

該活動主張，白俄羅斯政權正將選擇性釋放囚犯作為戰術性外交手段，而非釋出真正政治自由化的訊號；同時，自2020年以來，國內對民主變革的希望已大幅消退。作為證據，活動強調2025年末有123名政治犯獲釋並被驅逐出境，其中包括阿列斯・別利亞茨基（Ales Bialiatski）與瑪麗亞・卡列斯尼卡娃（Maria Kalesnikava）；此舉被界定為在持續鎮壓背景下，對美國政府示好的姿態。討論聚焦於應如何解讀當前美國與白俄羅斯的接觸，以及西方仍可採取何種路線以維持對政治變革的壓力。其政策意涵是，西方政府應推動以具體人權成果為條件的接觸政策，避免使威權統治正常化，並持續長期支持流亡與境內的白俄羅斯民主力量。

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