The Chatham House analysis argues that Israel's current political deadlock stems from deep ideological divisions, which severely threaten national stability and governance capacity. Key evidence points to the inability of major political blocs to form a cohesive government, leading to policy paralysis and internal friction. Strategically, the report implies that external actors, including regional powers and global allies, must adjust their engagement models, recognizing that internal instability makes long-term policy predictability challenging. Continued fragmentation necessitates a shift toward supporting internal reconciliation mechanisms rather than focusing solely on external security cooperation.
Will Peru’s booming economy survive its latest election?
English Summary
Chatham House analysis suggests Peru’s historically volatile political landscape poses a significant threat to its ongoing economic boom. Despite averaging 5.5% growth between 2002 and 2022, the country’s frequent presidential transitions, often triggered by impeachment and political infighting, create instability. The upcoming election between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez highlights this risk, with Fujimori’s repeated near-wins and the potential for continued political maneuvering by defeated candidates like López-Aliaga a key concern. Recent constitutional reforms, including the creation of a bicameral legislature, aim to reduce party fragmentation, but the deeply entrenched political traditions and ongoing corruption allegations suggest continued instability. This situation demands careful monitoring of the election’s outcome and its potential impact on Peru’s economic trajectory.
中文摘要
智華會分析指出，秘魯歷史上動盪的政治環境對其持續的經濟繁榮構成重大威脅。儘管2002年至2022年平均增長率達5.5%，但該國頻繁的總統更迭，通常由彈劾和政治鬥爭引發，造成了不穩定性。即將舉行的柯伊科·富吉羅和羅伯托·桑切斯之間的競選活動凸顯了這一風險，特別是富吉羅的多次接近獲勝以及如洛佩斯·阿里雅加等失選候選人可能持續的政治操弄，構成了主要擔憂。最近的憲法改革，包括設立雙議院，旨在減少黨派分歧，但秘魯根深蒂固的政治傳統和持續的腐敗指控表明，不穩定性將會持續。因此，需要密切關注此次選舉的結果及其對秘魯經濟軌跡的潛在影響。
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