The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Brexit 10 years on: Michel Barnier and the future of UK–EU relations
English Summary
A decade after Brexit, UK-EU relations are entering a new phase of cautious engagement, though persistent disputes over trade, regulation, and mobility continue to complicate cooperation. Michel Barnier, former French PM, argues that the relationship's trajectory depends on managing structural tensions while accounting for shifting domestic politics—particularly France's 2027 presidential election. The discussion emphasizes that realistic near-term cooperation outcomes require acknowledging both sides' desire to rebuild ties and the practical limits imposed by regulatory divergence and political constraints in London, Paris, and Brussels.
中文摘要
英國脫歐十年後，英歐關係正進入一個謹慎互動的新階段。然而，貿易、監管和流動性方面的持續爭議，仍持續複雜化雙方的合作。前法國總理米歇爾·巴尼耶（Michel Barnier）認為，雙方關係的發展軌跡，取決於能否管理結構性張力，同時考量到不斷變化的國內政治局勢——特別是法國2027年總統大選。本文討論強調，若要達成現實的短期合作成果，必須正視雙方重建關係的意願，以及監管分歧和倫敦、巴黎、布魯塞爾的政治限制所帶來的實際瓶頸。
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