The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Making water use in global trade more sustainable
English Summary
The paper argues that water is a 'forgotten input' in global trade, and the lack of policy integration regarding water use leads to unsustainable practices in supply chains. It emphasizes that thinking about supply-chain security must explicitly incorporate the concept of 'virtual water' trade, particularly given current geopolitical fragmentation. Consequently, policymakers and corporations must mandate that physical water scarcity and degradation challenges are primary considerations when reorganizing supplier relationships and managing global trade flows.
中文摘要
本文提出，水資源在全球貿易中是一個「被忽略的投入要素」，缺乏關於水資源使用的政策整合，導致供應鏈中出現不可持續的實踐。文章強調，鑑於當前的地緣政治碎片化趨勢，思考供應鏈安全時必須明確納入「虛擬水」貿易的概念。因此，政策制定者和企業必須強制要求，在重組供應商關係和管理全球貿易流動時，必須將實體水資源的短缺和退化挑戰作為首要考量。
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