The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
Could Britain really rejoin the EU? Independent Thinking podcast
English Summary
This podcast explores the complex feasibility of Britain rejoining the European Union, questioning whether a credible bid is likely to emerge on the UK's political agenda. The discussion analyzes how drastically changed economic and defense environments might influence the case for re-entry. Key considerations include the specific terms under which European leaders might accept the return of the former partner. Ultimately, the episode suggests that the UK's potential return hinges on addressing its relationship with the continent and meeting the evolving standards set by the EU.
中文摘要
本播客深入探討了英國重返歐盟的複雜可行性，並質疑是否有可信的提案將會浮現於英國的政治議程中。討論分析了經濟和國防環境的巨大變化，如何影響重返歐盟的論點。關鍵考量包括歐洲領導人可能接受前夥伴國重返的具體條件。最終，本集指出，英國是否能重返大陸，取決於其能否調整與歐洲大陸的關係，並達到歐盟不斷演變的標準。
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