The article argues that Donald Trump's unique and prolonged lame-duck period, coupled with domestic political pressures, makes him dangerously prone to international instability. Having exhausted major diplomatic gambits, Trump is expected to channel his energy into high-stakes, unilateral actions, primarily targeting adversaries such as Iran and Cuba. These potential actions—ranging from fresh strikes in the Persian Gulf to attempts at regime change—carry a significant risk of destabilizing regional security and triggering a global economic crisis. Policymakers must anticipate this pivot to high-risk foreign policy to mitigate potential international flare-ups.
The world of hard power, and the future of the war on Ukraine
English Summary
Chatham House’s event frames the war in Ukraine as a hard-power contest whose outcome will shape Europe’s wider security order. General Valerii Zaluzhnyi is positioned to argue that battlefield developments should directly inform diplomatic expectations about war termination rather than optimism detached from military realities. The session emphasizes building a common European security strategy, with specific focus on the UK’s role and Ukraine’s contribution to allied defence and deterrence capacity. For policymakers, the implication is to prioritize long-term military readiness, tighter UK-Europe-Ukraine coordination, and strategy grounded in operational conditions on the front.
中文摘要
英國皇家國際事務研究所（Chatham House）的活動將烏克蘭戰爭界定為一場硬實力競逐，其結果將形塑歐洲更廣泛的安全秩序。瓦列里·扎盧日內將軍預計主張，外交上對戰爭終結的預期應直接以戰場發展為依據，而非建立在脫離軍事情勢的樂觀判斷之上。該場次強調建構共同的歐洲安全戰略，並特別聚焦英國的角色，以及烏克蘭對盟友防衛與嚇阻能力的貢獻。對政策制定者而言，核心意涵是優先投入長期軍事整備、強化英國—歐洲—烏克蘭協調，並以前線作戰條件為基礎制定戰略。
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