The China-Russia partnership is a highly consequential geopolitical alignment driven by a shared goal of countering U.S. hegemony and reshaping the international order into a multipolar system. While not a formal alliance, this relationship is strengthened by Russia's increasing economic reliance on China following Western sanctions, which allows Beijing to leverage its influence. Policymakers should note that while the partnership projects deep solidarity (as seen in high-level summits), it remains complex and limited by mutual mistrust and competing strategic interests. This enduring alignment poses a significant challenge to U.S. interests and requires continued diplomatic vigilance.
How far will Trump push Cuba?
English Summary
The article argues that a tougher Trump approach to Cuba may raise pressure on Havana, but is unlikely to produce a quick Venezuela-style political breakthrough. It points to Cuba’s deepening economic and energy crisis after losing subsidized Venezuelan oil, while emphasizing the regime’s durable control through the Communist Party, security institutions, and weak, fragmented domestic opposition. It also notes that U.S. law (especially the 1992 and 1996 embargo statutes) sharply limits what any administration can offer unless major democratic conditions are met, constraining deal-making. Strategically, this suggests Washington risks worsening humanitarian conditions and migration flows without guaranteed regime change, so policy should combine pressure with realistic transition benchmarks and crisis contingency planning.
中文摘要
該文主張，川普對古巴採取更強硬的路線或可提高對哈瓦那的壓力，但不太可能迅速帶來類似委內瑞拉式的政治突破。文章指出，古巴在失去委內瑞拉補貼石油後，經濟與能源危機持續惡化；同時強調政權依靠共產黨、國安與治安機構，以及薄弱且分裂的國內反對派，仍具高度韌性的控制力。文章亦提到，美國法律（尤其是1992年與1996年的禁運法）在未達成重大民主條件前，嚴格限制任何政府可提供的讓步空間，因而壓縮交易與談判可能。從戰略面看，這意味著華府可能在無法保證政權更迭的情況下，反而加劇人道處境與移民流動，因此政策應在施壓之外，結合務實的過渡基準與危機應變規劃。
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